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Putin could assault Ukraine on Feb. 16, Biden told allies
With help from Jacopo Barigazzi, Lili Bayer, Erin Banco and David Herszenhorn
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National security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN said a total Russian invasion of Ukraine could come before the end of the Beijing Olympics on Feb. 20, even as President JOE BIDEN today told his counterparts almost Moscow's forces perhaps launching an incursion in five days.
"Whatever American in Ukraine should leave equally presently every bit possible, and in any event in the adjacent 24 to 48 hours," he said from the White House podium. "We don't know what's going to happen, but the risk is now loftier enough, and the threat is now immediate enough, that this is what prudence demands." There won't be a U.S. military endeavor to evacuate U.S. citizens from a Ukraine under siege, Sullivan asserted.
Shortly earlier Sullivan spoke, PBS NewsHour'south NICK SCHIFRIN reported the U.S. adamant Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN had decided to invade Ukraine and communicated that determination to his forces. Sullivan said the U.S. had yet to determine that Putin took a "final" decision.
Since and so, NatSec Daily and our POLITICO colleagues have heard differing assessments of what Putin might do.
NatSec Daily was told by a person familiar that President JOE BIDEN told Western leaders about the Feb. 16 date on an hourlong call today.
Russia will start a physical assault on Ukraine as soon every bit February. 16, multiple U.Due south. officials confirmed to POLITICO, and Washington communicated to allies that it could be preceded by a avalanche of missile strikes and cyberattacks. One person said the leaders' phone call indicated that cyberattacks are "imminent" and another said the intelligence is "specific and alarming." Sullivan mentioned that any attack on Ukraine could begin with "aeriform bombing and missile attacks."
Europeans, even so, signaled to the states that they have a different motion picture.
A U.K. official said that "nosotros have a different interpretation" of the Feb. 16 intelligence. Meanwhile, two European Wedlock diplomats shared even more skeptical views, with one saying they "however refuse to purchase it. It would be such a mistake past Putin. War is costly, Ukraine will fight them with everything."
Asked whether an invasion is imminent, a senior official from an eastern Eu state said it is "difficult to say." The official said that "the main idea is to be prepared with sanctions" and that "coordination and unity are key."
It's possible the Feb. 16 piece of intelligence is raw and not the overall assessment of the United states, which could explicate the yawning gap in expectations about merely how soon Putin will attack, if at all.
What is clear is that the tone from the White House is getting more severe — and more resigned — to the thought of Putin ordering a new phase in his war on Ukraine.
BIDEN ANGERED MANY WITH Transitional islamic state of afghanistan Coin Motility: Biden has proceeded to anger merely about everyone with his decision to divvy up Afghanistan'southward $7 billion in avails frozen in the U.South. for humanitarian and legal purposes.
At its core, Biden'south executive order says the U.S. will use $3.5 billion of that money to provide desperately needed aid to millions of starving Afghans while directing the other half toward American victims of the 9/11 terrorist attacks.
Moving the money will require U.Southward. financial institutions to transfer property in the United States belonging to Transitional islamic state of afghanistan's central bank into a consolidated account held at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, according to a White House fact canvass. The assistants "volition seek to facilitate access to $3.5 billion of those assets for the benefit of the Afghan people and for Afghanistan's future," pending a court ruling.
This immediately led to critical questions most the latter half. First, why is the U.S. taking coin from suffering Afghan civilians to pay nine/11 victims? Second, how will that money be distributed equitably to the thousands of grieving families involved in years of painstaking litigation?
Most experts nosotros spoke to ripped Biden's team for taking Afghanistan's money during 1 the worst economical and humanitarian crises on Earth. "It's a very draconian act. The people of Afghanistan were not responsible" for nine/xi, said VALI NASR, formerly a senior adviser to the U.S. special representative for Transitional islamic state of afghanistan and Islamic republic of pakistan. "This is very Trumpian at its cadre."
"The U.South. government is choosing to inflict collective punishment on the hapless Afghan people by giving away half of the country's foreign exchange reserves. This is unfortunate" and "morally tenuous," ASFANDYAR MIR, a senior skilful at the U.Due south. Establish of Peace, piled on.
The only person nosotros spoke to who supported the move was LISA CURTIS, sometime President DONALD TRUMP's top Afghanistan aide on the NSC. Information technology's "a reasonable and sound arroyo to dealing with the issue," she texted us, adding it "represents the kind of creative arroyo necessary to address the humanitarian crisis in the country, while avoiding legitimizing or boosting the Taliban."
The administration says the $3.v billion that will go to assist Afghans will be kept out of the Taliban's hands: "we are going to be ensuring that there are very robust controls in identify and so that it's not going to the Taliban; it's going to be used for the do good of the Afghan people," a senior administration official told reporters anonymously per the NSC's ground rules.
BRETT EAGLESON, son of ix/11 victim BRUCE EAGLESON who speaks on behalf of many 9/eleven families, told NatSec Daily that only one of the many 9/xi-related cases — the Havlish example — is far enough along for the plaintiffs to get money. A decade ago, the plaintiffs received a judgment of roughly $vii billion in amercement, and last year successfully got a U.S. marshal to serve the Federal Reserve of New York with a "writ of execution" to seize the frozen Afghan assets.
It's therefore possible, Eagleson fears, that all the money will become to the 47 Havlish families and not the thousands of others expecting compensation. Eagleson and other families would prefer the U.S. put that money in a dedicated fund to more deservedly disperse the billions. "My dad's death is no less valuable than another person's dad'southward decease," he said.
Asked what he thought about Afghans paying for the ix/11 victims, Eagleson said, "the Afghans had every opportunity to fight dorsum against the Taliban," adding "I don't see how they can merits it as their coin." He also believes the $3.5 billion earmarked for humanitarian aid in Transitional islamic state of afghanistan will most likely go to the Taliban.
BIDEN 'REJECTING' CLAIMS ADMIN FAILED AFGHAN EVAC: Biden is "rejecting" assertions past senior military leaders that the assistants failed to fairly gear up for the fall of Afghanistan and evacuation.
"That's not what I was told," he said during an NBC News interview that aired Thursday dark. Pressed by LESTER HOLT if Biden rejected what U.Southward. personnel told Regular army investigators, the president replied "Yes, I am," Biden said. "I am rejecting them."
This annotate followed reporting by The Washington Post's DAN LAMOTHE and ALEX HORTON about an Ground forces investigation into the Taliban takeover and airlifts out of Kabul airport. Obtained by a Freedom of Information Act asking, the report features commentary from the U.Southward. military machine commander of the performance and others stating central members of the White House and State Department failed to human activity with urgency.
Biden further defended his administration's actions. "Wait, there'southward no skillful time to go out, merely if we had not gotten out, they acknowledge that we would take had to put a hell of a lot more troops back in," the president insisted. "Information technology wasn't just ii,000, 4,000. We would have had to significantly increase the number of troops, and and then yous're back in this war of attrition."
'Non MOVED THE NEEDLE': Sweden'due south Country Secretary KARIN WALLENSTEEN told NatSec Daily that Russian federation's aggression toward Ukraine has "non moved the needle" on her state'southward considerations of joining NATO.
"In a state of affairs like this, more ever, stability and predictability is important," she said in an interview shortly subsequently meeting with her U.S. counterpart, national security adviser Jake Sullivan. "Our security policy is fix.… We want to exist a expert, strong partner to NATO, but we're not looking to bring together."
Wallensteen and her team also said the collective U.S.-European response toward the Kremlin depends on what Russia does. "We demand to accept different kinds of responses depending on what nosotros are responding to," 1 of Wallensteen's aides told us. "Information technology'southward not set."
The state secretary added that planned sanctions on Russia volition bite over fourth dimension and, if Moscow's behavior doesn't change, they will have an effect "on the general living weather condition in Russia, on the general public, as well."
DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the terminate of every long, hard calendar week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of Washington's national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink.
Today, we're featuring retired Lt. Gen. MIKE NAGATA, formerly the commander of Special Operations Control Central and at present at CACI. Nagata told united states he's not a fan of alcohol, so when he winds downwards he'll choice upwards an ice-common cold ginger ale.
When he's sipping on that fizzy goodness, Nagata says he prefers to be "anyplace I can scout a flick or read a volume that allows me brief escape and distraction from the existent globe." We hear ya, full general, thanks!
IT'S Friday. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Cheers for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.Due south. and strange officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who intendance well-nigh how the natsec sausage gets fabricated. Aim your tips and comments at [e-mail protected] and [email protected], and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey.
While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmccleary, @leehudson and @AndrewDesiderio.
Russian federation'S NAVAL BUILDUP: Our own PAUL McLEARY reports on the historic naval buildup of Russian ships in the Blackness Sea and Mediterranean — i of the largest seen since the Cold War.
Russian cruisers, submarines and other warships are now in place to assist the more 100,000 troops stationed along Ukraine's border. "Moscow's opening of a potential new forepart to Ukraine's due south came into full view Wednesday, when half-dozen amphibious ships moved into the Blackness Sea as Russia declared off-limits swaths of international waters surrounding occupied Crimea and the Ukrainian city of Odessa," McLeary wrote.
"Nosotros oasis't seen a movement like this in contempo history," in the Black Sea, said retired Adm. JAMES FOGGO, who allowable all U.Due south. and NATO naval forces in Europe until retiring in 2020.
Five CHILDREN KILLED IN SYRIA RAID: The U.Due south. special operations forces raid concluding week that killed Islamic State leader Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurayshi also resulted in the deaths of at least v children inside the building, per The Washington Mail'due south OMAR NEZHAT, SARAH DADOUCH, KAREEM FAHIM and JOYCE SOHYUN LEE.
Pentagon spokesperson JOHN KIRBY previously said that al-Qurayshi killed a full of three people — his married woman and ii children — when he detonated a suicide belong on the building's third flooring. Kirby also said it "appears as if" a child was killed on the second floor, where al-Qurayshi's lieutenant and his married woman barricaded themselves and engaged U.S. troops.
The Pentagon has insisted that all deaths during the operation were caused by al-Qurayshi's detonation and the barricaded lieutenant. But Defence Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN said in a statement last week that, "given the complexity of this mission, we will accept a look at the possibility our actions may as well have resulted in harm to innocent people."
Every bit the Postal service notes, the Biden administration "has not explained the discrepancy between its estimate of expressionless children and the tally provided by local first responders and UNICEF, who said that every bit many every bit vi children were killed. The chore of arriving at a precise count has been complicated, in part, by the poor state of some of the children's remains."
U.N. SAYS JOURNALISTS DETAINED IN KABUL: The United nations High Commissioner for Refugees appear that two journalists on assignment with the U.N. agency, as well as several Afghan nationals working with them, have been detained in Kabul, per Reuters.
"We are doing our utmost to resolve the situation, in coordination with others. We will make no further annotate given the nature of the situation," UNHCR tweeted.
National Directorate of Security spokesperson KHALIL HAMRAZ said the Taliban administration's security and intelligence bureau has "no information" about the journalists and Afghans, including "when and where they have disappeared." He added that Taliban officials "haven't reached whatsoever data yet; we are trying to detect information."
The Wall Street Journal's MARGHERITA STANCATI and DION NISSENBAUM later reported that the Taliban is property at least nine foreigners in custody in the Afghan capital, including one American and several British citizens. Amidst that group are the 2 journalists on consignment with UNHCR — a British reporter and an Irish photographer — along with an Afghan journalist and an Afghan driver with whom they were working.
WHITE HOUSE HUDDLES WITH CHIP INDUSTRY: PETER HARRELL, the National Security Council's senior manager for international economics and competitiveness, has been in recent contact with flake industry leaders, "learning about their exposure to Russian and Ukrainian chipmaking materials and urging them to discover alternative sources," per Reuters' ALEXANDRA ALPER and KAREN FREIFELD.
In those talks, White House officials are warning the bit industry "to diversify its supply chain" in advance of a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine, "in case Russia retaliates against threatened U.South. export curbs by blocking access to primal materials," Alper and Freifeld write.
U.Southward. concerns near potential Russian retaliation have ramped up since a report published before this month by Techcet, a marketplace research group, estimated that more than 90 percent of neon supplies used by U.S. semiconductor manufacturers come up from Ukraine, while 35 percent of palladium supplies come from Russia.
U.South. VS. FRANCE ON Republic of indonesia FIGHTER: Our friends at Forenoon Defense force (for Pros!) reported that a U.S.-France fight over Indonesia's fighter competition burst out into the open when Paris claimed victory, Washington unveiled its latest pitch and Djakarta fabricated clear information technology's not over yet.
On a recent visit to Jakarta, French Defence Minister FLORENCE PARLY signed a bargain with Defense Government minister PRABOWO SUBIANTO for the first of what French President EMMANUEL MACRON announced on Twitter would be 42 Rafale fighters.
But Subianto clarified that it was but for half-dozen fighters and a bigger contract is coming for 36 more aircraft. Hours later, the State Section made the U.Southward. proposal public, announcing it had notified Congress that it canonical a $13.9 billion deal for 36 upgraded Boeing F-15 fighters.
Republic of indonesia'southward "serious drive of defense force procurement" reinforces how China is seen equally a "very substantial" threat to the region, said RICHARD ABOULAFIA, managing director at AeroDynamic Informational. Withal, Indonesia has a long history of boot the tires on big-ticket conquering programs and not post-obit through.
SENATORS SAY CIA HAS Underground Collection PROGRAM: Sens. RON WYDEN (D-Ore.) and MARTIN HEINRICH (D-Northward.K.), members of the Senate Intelligence Committee, claim that the CIA has a secret program that collects Americans' data.
The lawmakers didn't disembalm what was in the program. But they did release a declassified and redacted April 2021 alphabetic character to superlative intelligence officials challenge "the CIA has secretly conducted its own bulk program," authorized nether Executive Order 12333, rather than the laws passed by Congress.
The program is "entirely outside the statutory framework that Congress and the public believe govern this collection, and without whatever of the judicial, congressional or even executive co-operative oversight that comes from [Strange Intelligence Surveillance Human activity] drove."
Both lawmakers have longed pushed for greater transparency about the U.S. intelligence customs's collection practices. "Our letter as well stressed that the public deserves to know more about the collection of this information," the lawmakers wrote.
SENATORS OFFER NUCLEAR FUEL Banking company: Sens. BOB MENENDEZ (D-Northward.J.) and LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-Southward.C.) introduced a resolution to provide any Heart Eastern country access to nuclear fuel if it promises non to enrich uranium and reprocess it.
"Modeled on the existing nuclear fuel banking concern created past the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the establishment of a regional fuel bank supported past the resolution would allow the commercial evolution of nuclear power throughout the region while at the aforementioned fourth dimension eliminating the need for unsafe and destabilizing domestic nuclear programs," reads a news release of the bill.
The lawmakers say this measure would not only comprise Iran'due south power to make its first nuclear bomb, but also reduce the likelihood of a nuclear artillery race in the Middle East.
"This resolution demonstrates in that location is bipartisan support for a broader, regional diplomatic approach to accost Iran's nuclear plan from a regional perspective putting forward norms which would let Western farsi Gulf and other Eye Eastern states the ability to enjoy the benefits of nuclear ability without fueling nuclear proliferation," Menendez, the Senate Foreign Relations chair, said in a statement.
"There is no reason to enrich uranium if your goal is to accept peaceful nuclear ability. I believe this proposal volition exist well-received by our allies in the region and should be welcomed by Islamic republic of iran if peaceful nuclear power is truly what they desire," Graham added.
GOP URGES BIDEN TO REJECT Russia AND CHINA ON INF: In a Feb. 10 letter, top Republicans told Biden to ignore Russian and Chinese demands that the U.Due south. not identify intermediate- and brusque-range missiles in the European and Indo-Pacific theaters, Defense News' JOE GOULD reported.
"We are gravely concerned that any attempt to resurrect the INF Treaty or reimpose limitations on footing-launched missiles would catastrophically undermine American national security, encourage Russian aggression, and advance a flawed view of security that sacrifices peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific," read the letter of the alphabet led by Rep. MIKE GALLAGHER (R-Wis.).
Signatories include Reps. MICHAEL TURNER (R-Ohio), MIKE ROGERS (R-Ala.) and MICHAEL McCAUL (R-Texas), respectively the leaders of the House Intelligence, War machine and Strange Affairs committees.
SCHAKE SLAMS POTUS ON RUSSIA: KORI SCHAKE, who served on the National Security Council and at the Land Department under former President GEORGE Due west. BUSH's assistants, asserts in a New York Times op-ed today that the Biden administration'south Russian federation policy has i big problem: Joe Biden, himself.
"The insular nature of his controlling, including his reliance on like-minded advisers, lacks rigorous thinking and fuels a kind of arrogance that can pb to unforced errors," Schake writes, and Biden's "casual suggestion last calendar month that 'a minor incursion' by Russia might not draw a tough response required mopping up past the administration."
Simply most of all, Schake takes event with Biden's repeated proclamation that U.Due south. troops will not move into Ukraine to defend the Eastern European country on its own territory.
"Instead of ruling out U.Southward. military involvement within Ukraine, Mr. Biden could accept focused on the fact that the United states and Canada already take forces in Ukraine helping train its war machine to defend its territory and sovereignty," Schake argues — adding that Biden also "missed an of import opportunity to assist Americans understand why we should intendance about what happens in Ukraine."
— FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: MANDY SMITHBERGER is now a defense policy adviser to Sen. ELIZABETH WARREN (D-Mass.). She nigh recently was a director at the Projection On Government Oversight and is a Rep. JACKIE SPEIER (D-Calif.) alum.
— SHIRA EFRON will get director of research at the Israel Policy Forum. She currently is a policy adviser at the Israel Policy Forum, too as a senior swain at the Institute for National Security Studies, a special adviser on Israel at the RAND Corporation and a consultant with the United nations land team in Jerusalem advising on Gaza access bug.
— RYAN D. MCCARTHY, a sometime secretarial assistant of the Army, is joining the Washington, D.C., office of Syracuse University's Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs equally a dean's scholar in residence.
— MOHAMMED EL-KURD, The Nation: "Israeli Constabulary & Torture: From Detained Minors to a Prison house 'Torture Room'"
— BENJAMIN WALLACE-WELLS, The New Yorker: "The New Doves on Ukraine"
— LOVEDAY MORRIS, The Washington Mail service: "The Former Chancellor and Friend of Putin'southward at the Centre of Deutschland'south Russia Struggle"
— The Wilson Heart, 9 a.m.: "The Wilson Red china Fellowship Conference 2022 — with ABRAHAM DENMARK, MARK GREEN, DAVID LAMPTON, LAURA ROSENBERGER and STEPHEN DEL ROSSO"
— Lutheran Immigration and Refugee Service, eleven a.m.: "Press Conference: Veterans, Refugee Advocates, Afghan Evacuees Urge Congress to Pass Afghan Adjustment Act — with NADIA HASHIMI, MIKE JASON, HELAL MASSOMI, HANNA TRIPP, SHAWN VANDIVER, KRISH O'MARA VIGNARAJAH and MATT ZELLER"
— The Project 2049 Plant, 12 p.m.: "Taiwan's Global Gravity: The Push and Pull of Coercive and Annihilative Cross-Strait Scenarios — with IAN EASTON, JOHN GASTRIGHT JR., SHIHOKO GOTO, BI-KHIM HSIAO, LELAND LAZARUS, ERIC LEE, HOWARD 'HOWIE' R. LIND, ELAINE LURIA, MICHAEL MAZZA, GARY J. SCHMITT, RANDALL G. SCHRIVER, STEVEN A. SHAPIRO and MARK STOKES"
— The Due east-West Heart, 1 p.m.: "North korea and the Centre Due east: Lessons Learned for U.S.-North korea Relations — with SUZANNE DIMAGGIO, SIEGFRIED HECKER, YAAKOV KATZ, SATU LIMAYE and KEITH LUSE"
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Source: https://www.politico.com/newsletters/national-security-daily/2022/02/11/putin-could-attack-ukraine-on-feb-16-biden-told-allies-00008344
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